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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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