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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.