Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.